{ "schema": "setai-experiment-audit-v1", "studyId": "20261024T142456Z", "protocolSha256": "d42cc321e47a700228c2257da19152dd7dd24c469283641ad5a6eceb160b4566", "trialLogSha256": "96012422539c2d32bdbfc6e9cd99b26085636c465490532cc1057d1a6fb98bac", "protocol": { "study": "SETAEI independent synthetic-key replication", "version": "audit-v1", "id": "20261024T142456Z", "lockedAtUtc": "2026-10-24T14:24:56.501Z", "originalCohort": { "model": 1200, "ranking": 1200, "avalanche": 256 }, "freshCohort": { "model": 2000, "ranking": 2000, "avalanche": 512 }, "freshSeedHex": "18322f4797fb9d7bd1be363149e1394f6b80f14fad3ac9d0366d7fe7a6a8ba04", "sourceHashes": [ { "source": "/opt/setai-key-agent/research.js", "name": "research.js", "sha256": "b12605cb611ee3eee0bec30848491d31b7fc720e19c0ec122563c91c78b11182", "bytes": 7894, "mtime": "2026-10-23T00:11:33.742Z" }, { "source": "/var/www/setai/key/crypto-public-v1.js", "name": "crypto-public-v1.js", "sha256": "2505ca402ef577e59932a386b5575147b739eddc24821cd8dffcf661922779a0", "bytes": 41658, "mtime": "2026-10-22T23:32:39.378Z" }, { "source": "/var/www/setai/key/crypto-address-v2.js", "name": "crypto-address-v2.js", "sha256": "92cb91b67766205ba7b6ed5644b677a87ee43dcb393652ffee4ceb804a3f9a5d", "bytes": 40911, "mtime": "2026-10-21T19:29:12.243Z" }, { "source": "/var/www/setai/key/model-experiment-v5.js", "name": "model-experiment-v5.js", "sha256": "f1142ca11bfe3ffd16f45d7e7b19f89d4f3d868ac3f249531f449701e775b0e5", "bytes": 554219, "mtime": "2026-10-21T20:07:46.791Z" }, { "source": "/var/www/setai/key/guess-experiment-v5.js", "name": "guess-experiment-v5.js", "sha256": "377862d59843aa17d8958516e5fc7f12b5f2b3040daee86b25e40af5b4d2c597", "bytes": 1539, "mtime": "2026-10-21T20:07:46.791Z" } ], "primary": "Paired mean correct private-key bits: frozen ridge prediction minus independent random baseline.", "secondary": [ "Paired mean key-bit benefit from choosing the more similar address of two candidates.", "Mean changed address bits after one private-key bit flip; reference 80/160." ], "inference": "Per-trial paired two-sided Student-t 95% CI; no treating 256 bits as independent subjects. Holm-adjusted p values across the three contrasts. No outcome-driven stopping.", "fixedStop": "Exactly 2000, 2000 and 512 fresh trials. No model training, weight updates or target-wallet input.", "exclusion": "Only a candidate scalar outside 1 <= k < secp256k1 order is rejected by deterministic rejection sampling.", "timing": "Fresh and replay wall-clock UTC and monotonic elapsed times plus process CPU time are recorded. Original per-trial times are unavailable.", "evidence": "Original deterministic replay is a reproducibility check, not a fresh replication. Fresh cohort uses a seed drawn after freezing current model files. The protocol is internally timestamped, not externally preregistered.", "privacy": "Synthetic private keys exist only in process memory and are never written. No wallet balance/network requests. Public observation contains only aggregate Hamming-distance statistics.", "limitations": [ "Original training keys are unavailable; explicit training/holdout set-overlap cannot be audited. Fresh seed generation is independent of the frozen training process.", "Original individual rows and timestamps were not recorded; reconstructed rows must not be presented as original logs.", "Observational point-stream samples are not controlled AI trials and will not be pooled with them.", "Statistical consistency with randomness is not proof of cryptographic security or impossibility of future methods." ] }, "run": { "id": "20261024T142456Z", "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:24:56.456Z", "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:26:30.649Z", "wallMs": 94122.695119, "cpuMicros": { "user": 7541589, "system": 145858 }, "rows": 7168, "phaseTimes": { "replay_model": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:24:56.532Z", "trials": 1200, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:10.949Z", "wallMs": 14417.585001, "cpuMicros": { "user": 1060795, "system": 10620 } }, "replay_ranking": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:10.955Z", "trials": 1200, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:32.997Z", "wallMs": 22042.307152, "cpuMicros": { "user": 1851361, "system": 30588 } }, "replay_avalanche": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:33.090Z", "trials": 256, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:35.825Z", "wallMs": 2735.3497209999987, "cpuMicros": { "user": 213932, "system": 78 } }, "fresh_model": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:35.825Z", "trials": 2000, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:52.454Z", "wallMs": 16628.873377000004, "cpuMicros": { "user": 1339974, "system": 43676 } }, "fresh_ranking": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:25:52.454Z", "trials": 2000, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:26:24.980Z", "wallMs": 32526.15051, "cpuMicros": { "user": 2638669, "system": 44025 } }, "fresh_avalanche": { "startedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:26:24.980Z", "trials": 512, "endedUtc": "2026-10-24T14:26:30.646Z", "wallMs": 5666.218949999995, "cpuMicros": { "user": 434384, "system": 15636 } } }, "protocolSha256": "d42cc321e47a700228c2257da19152dd7dd24c469283641ad5a6eceb160b4566", "modelMetadata": { "version": 1, "method": "ridge regression", "input": "160 Ethereum address bits, MSB first; no checksum case", "training_count": 700, "validation_train_count": 500, "validation_count": 200, "test_count": 300, "lambda": 1, "bit_accuracy": 0.4988151041666667, "full_key_matches": 0 }, "environment": { "node": "v22.13.0", "platform": "linux", "arch": "x64", "cpuModel": "AMD EPYC-Rome Processor", "cpuCount": 1 }, "trialLogSha256": "96012422539c2d32bdbfc6e9cd99b26085636c465490532cc1057d1a6fb98bac" }, "originalStartedUtc": "2026-10-23T00:12:08.205Z", "originalEndedUtc": "2026-10-23T00:13:26.478Z", "originalWallSeconds": 78.273, "uniqueControlledTrials": 7168, "newIndependentTrials": 4512, "originalTrials": 2656, "replayTrials": 2656, "cohorts": { "replay": { "model": { "n": 1200, "mean": -0.25583333333333336, "sd": 11.277397707572783, "se": 0.3255504301112807, "ci95": [ -0.8945452061805701, 0.3828785395139034 ], "reference": 0, "p": 0.43211148833891977, "pHolm": 0.8642229766778395, "modelMeanBits": 128.33416666666668, "randomMeanBits": 128.59, "exactKeys": 0 }, 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2.277299199688767e-33, 5.802036177550971e-35, 1.1016524387755268e-36, 1.385726338082408e-38, 8.660789613015069e-41 ], "tails": [ { "threshold": 96, "observed": 885447, "expectedIID": 886107.3855144178 }, { "threshold": 104, "observed": 11559, "expectedIID": 11587.955774107093 }, { "threshold": 112, "observed": 23, "expectedIID": 28.53764507879653 }, { "threshold": 116, "observed": 1, "expectedIID": 0.7179820729174264 } ], "scope": "Exploratory public-address statistics; iid/binomial reference is an explicit model assumption, not demonstrated cryptographic independence." }, "historical": { "v1": { "measurementRows": 34, "mlRows": 9, "fits": [ { "method": "BSGS", "slope_log2_ops_vs_bits": 0.49484658870105314, "samples": 8 }, { "method": "Pollard rho", "slope_log2_ops_vs_bits": 0.5538513070500662, "samples": 7 } ], "limitations": [ "Measured op counts are group additions/doublings, not equivalent CPU instructions.", "Memory/operation caps cause SKIPPED or CAPPED, not failures of attacks.", "ML is kNN scalar regression on (x/p,y/p), disjoint training and test keys.", "ML accuracy 1/n is a theoretical uniform-guess baseline; 60 trials per curve cannot resolve such tiny probabilities.", "Positive MOV test is on a weak supersingular curve; it does not imply the ML model learned the attack.", "Theoretical projections are not observed timings." ] }, "v2": { "plannedRows": 1080, "statuses": { "found": 543, "not_run": 480, "capped": 57 }, "timingModes": { "shared_prefix_not_independent": 90, "independent_run": 453 }, "slopes": [ { "method": "exhaustive", "slope_log2_median_ops_per_bit": 1.04229, "bit_sizes": [ 16, 20, 24 ], "interpretation": "exploratory; few cells; not a proof of asymptotic behavior" }, { "method": "BSGS", "slope_log2_median_ops_per_bit": 0.49084, "bit_sizes": [ 16, 20, 24, 28, 32 ], "interpretation": "exploratory; few cells; not a proof of asymptotic behavior" }, { "method": "rho3_Floyd", "slope_log2_median_ops_per_bit": 0.49104, "bit_sizes": [ 16, 20, 24, 28, 32 ], "interpretation": "exploratory; few cells; not a proof of asymptotic behavior" }, { "method": "rho20_Brent", "slope_log2_median_ops_per_bit": 0.38855, "bit_sizes": [ 16, 20, 24, 28, 32 ], "interpretation": "exploratory; few cells; not a proof of asymptotic behavior" } ], "summary": [ { "bits": 16, "method": "BSGS", "trials": 30, "planned_trials": 30, "found": 30, "right_censored": 0, "not_run": 0, "median_completed": 378.0, "q1_completed": 322, "q3_completed": 453, "bootstrap95_median_low": 345.5, "bootstrap95_median_high": 431.0, "km_median_including_censored": 379, "timing_mode": "independent_run", "status": "complete" }, { "bits": 16, "method": "exhaustive", "trials": 30, "planned_trials": 30, "found": 30, "right_censored": 0, "not_run": 0, "median_completed": 17188.5, "q1_completed": 11309, "q3_completed": 37965, "bootstrap95_median_low": 12854.5, "bootstrap95_median_high": 34567.0, "km_median_including_censored": 18544, "timing_mode": 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"partial_or_censored" }, { "bits": 48, "method": "rho3_Floyd", "trials": 0, "planned_trials": 30, "found": 0, "right_censored": 0, "not_run": 30, "median_completed": null, "q1_completed": null, "q3_completed": null, "bootstrap95_median_low": null, "bootstrap95_median_high": null, "km_median_including_censored": null, "timing_mode": "not_run", "status": "partial_or_censored" } ], "mlRows": 36, "mlStatuses": { "complete": 32, "not_applicable": 4 }, "positiveControls": { "MOV": "pass", "Smart": "pass" }, "limitations": [ "36-bit rho cap is 160 000 group operations, below the expected ~1.25*sqrt(n) ≈ 290 000; heavy censoring there is by design, not a method failure.", "24-bit exhaustive: independent random secrets but correlated shared-prefix timing, not independent CPU timings.", "Brute force time estimates are not comparable with separately timed rho / BSGS.", "rho20 counts preprocessing group operations; walk_steps are separate.", "Floyd rho3 baseline counts total group operations 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